ع
Indian markets are poised to open on June 29, 2026 with attention fixed on the latest Iran-related developments and forthcoming U.S. economic indicators that will shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy, a Reuters report stated. The Indian rupee ended the prior session at 94.3950 per U.S. dollar, registering little change over the week while positioning itself for the first month-on-month increase since February after markets observed a holiday on Friday.
According to the Reuters dispatch from Mumbai, Iran targeted U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain during the weekend following threats by President Donald Trump to strike Iranian leaders if the temporary peace accord was not observed. Such actions are anticipated to direct focus back toward oil prices, where declining risk appetite would likely pressure the rupee that had stabilized following record lows in the previous month. Analysts at Goldman Sachs indicated in a note that the macro environment is growing more supportive for INR duration given moderating inflation forecasts and reduced fiscal vulnerabilities from lower oil costs. The currency had steadied after hitting historic lows last month.
A Reuters poll conducted between June 23 and 25 revealed that more than three-quarters of economists expect the federal funds rate to hold steady through 2026, countering futures pricing that points to two hikes. The upcoming U.S. payrolls figures scheduled for Thursday are forecast to reflect an addition of 110,000 jobs in June. Data supporting stronger rate hike probabilities could push up worldwide bond yields and weigh on emerging market currencies like the rupee, the report noted.
Government bonds posted gains last week amid sliding oil values, yet the 10-year yield encountered resistance and closed at 6.7690 percent on Thursday after failing to breach 6.75 percent, Reuters reported. This represented an eight basis point weekly decline, extending a streak of five consecutive weekly drops and a 28 basis point fall across that period. Trading Economics data places the yield around 6.77 percent in late June, aided by foreign demand spurred by softer crude prices near 72 dollars per barrel.
Foreign investors acquired a net 279 billion rupees, or roughly 3 billion dollars, in Indian bonds this month, predominantly after the Reserve Bank of India’s June 5 initiatives to spur inflows, according to the report. These purchases have reached record levels since the creation of a separate unrestricted investment category by the RBI. Shiv Chopra, a senior portfolio manager for emerging markets fixed income at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said, “The recent measures address some of the roadblocks to inclusion in the Bloomberg index, particularly the tax issue, as India has now aligned itself with other zero-tax sovereign issuers included in this index.”
Chopra continued that liquidity and market depth have also been improved as this benchmark requires a deep pool of investable assets. Traders project the 10-year yield to fluctuate between 6.72 percent and 6.84 percent in the week ahead, centering on oil trends, overseas investment and progress toward Bloomberg index inclusion. A separate Reuters article highlighted that overseas investors have pivoted toward shorter-maturity debt amid expectations of policy shifts influenced by the Iran situation.
India’s May industrial production figures are slated for release on June 29 while the June HSBC manufacturing PMI follows on July 1, the Reuters compilation listed. U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data due July 2 will offer additional insights into the rate path. Foreign portfolio inflows into bonds have contributed to yield compression as per recent market assessments.
