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Traders anticipate the rupee will open in the 95.55-95.60 range against the dollar on Monday after it settled at 95.3250 on Friday Reuters reported on July 13 2026. The currency traded in a 94.96-95.60 band last week largely mirroring movements in crude oil for which India relies heavily on imports to meet its requirements. A currency trader at a private-sector bank told the news service that the focus has swung back to oil after Iran expanded strikes on Gulf states following US attacks reviving risks to India’s trade balance.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the ceasefire is over the Reuters dispatch stated. Over the weekend Tehran expanded its attacks to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates while the United States launched fresh hits on Iran in the latest cycle of strikes and counter-strikes tied to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump added that the strait remained open to commercial traffic even as Iran had indicated it had been shut according to the report.
Reuters data from earlier this year places the Middle East share of India’s crude imports at about 55 percent or roughly 2.74 million barrels per day the highest level since late 2022. A Reuters analysis found that for 2025 OPEC’s share of those imports edged up to 50 percent while Russia’s portion shrank to 33.3 percent. This reliance leaves the rupee particularly exposed to oil-driven pressures on the current account and inflation Reuters noted.
The Reserve Bank of India has been providing its usual support to the rupee bankers told Reuters with the extent of intervention potentially becoming more pronounced due to rising oil prices. The private-sector trader added that developments around oil-driven inflation concerns and their effect on US Treasury yields are also under watch. Brent crude jumped more than 4 percent to 79.28 dollars a barrel in Asian trading the report said.
The latest exchange of strikes has raised fresh doubts about the prospects for a lasting agreement despite continuing diplomatic contacts ANZ Bank said in a note carried by Reuters. Market participants will closely monitor the central bank’s response to these external shocks in the days ahead according to the dispatch. Currency dealers expect the rupee’s moves this week to remain closely linked to developments in crude markets and any signals from the RBI on its dollar operations.
Reserve Bank of India records show the local currency has historically come under pressure during past Middle East flare-ups that lifted oil costs with depreciation episodes often prompting increased central bank intervention. Economists tracking the sector have flagged that prolonged Brent prices near current levels could add to imported inflation and widen the trade gap in the current fiscal year a dynamic seen in similar episodes previously. The rupee’s performance will therefore hinge on both geopolitical de-escalation and the scale of RBI support in the near term Reuters concluded.
