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Fitch Ratings anticipates the UAE economy expanding 8.5 percent in 2027, supported by the country’s robust financial position, resilient business environment and sustained government-led investment according to a report covered by Khaleej Times. The agency expects non-oil growth to reach 6.1 percent that year after a 3.7 percent contraction in 2026 linked to regional geopolitical tensions that disrupted hydrocarbon activity. Growth is then projected to moderate to 4.3 percent in 2028, with the non-oil economy still 2.2 percent larger than its 2025 level at that point. Abu Dhabi’s government spending is set to increase 19 percent in 2026 to bolster economic activity, infrastructure and investor confidence, the Fitch assessment found.
Fiscal surpluses are expected to exceed 8 percent of GDP each year through 2028, incorporating investment income from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, according to the ratings agency’s projections. These buffers form part of the emirate’s exceptionally strong balance sheet that underpins national creditworthiness despite external pressures. The outlook assumes gradual normalisation from early 2027 as production recovers and shipping routes reopen following disruptions.
Fitch affirmed the UAE’s sovereign credit rating at AA- with a stable outlook while maintaining Abu Dhabi’s rating at AA with a stable outlook in the same review. The ratings reflect the emirate’s substantial financial reserves and capacity to absorb shocks, the agency stated. Public finances have benefited from elevated energy prices amid recent tensions even as trade and logistics faced temporary constraints.
Separate projections from the Central Bank of the UAE, detailed in its October 2026 Quarterly Economic Review, place overall GDP growth at 10.4 percent for 2027 after an upward revision from 9.8 percent. The central bank anticipates hydrocarbon activity rising 26.8 percent that year as output reaches five million barrels per day, according to its figures. Non-oil GDP is forecast to grow 4.9 percent under that scenario, building on policy measures including infrastructure expenditure and financial resilience packages.
The World Bank projected a 9.5 percent UAE rebound in 2027 after a 1.6 percent contraction in 2026, in its October 6 report on regional recovery patterns. That assessment aligns with broader GCC expectations of a 10.3 percent regional expansion in 2027 following a 4.3 percent decline, assuming easing disruptions to energy exports. Both institutions highlighted the UAE’s diversified hub status connecting Asia and Europe as a mitigating factor against volatility.
Fitch noted that the UAE non-oil model has drawn strength from government policies, foreign worker inflows and visitor attraction even while flagging reliance on expatriate labour as a structural vulnerability. The agency pointed to ongoing efforts to reinforce infrastructure and maintain favourable operating conditions across key sectors. These elements continue to shape medium-term prospects as the country navigates post-disruption normalisation.
